The July 30 MPC Decision: What Landlords Need to Know

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meets on 30 July. A hold at 3.75% is the strong favourite, priced at around 86 to 87%. But if you're a landlord, the base rate decision itself isn't really the story this week.

Buy-to-let mortgage rates, which had been falling for months, have quietly started rising again. That's the real story this week. It happened before the MPC even meets, and it has nothing to do with what the Bank decides on Thursday.

Here's what's actually going on, and what it means if you're remortgaging in the second half of 2026.

The Hold Is Still the Base Case

June's inflation data gave the doves something to work with. CPI came in at 2.6% for the year to June, down from 2.8% in May and below the roughly 2.7% that economists had pencilled in. It's the lowest reading since March 2025, and the drop was driven mainly by falling motor fuel prices.

On its own, a cooler-than-expected CPI print like that would normally nudge the odds away from a hike. It hasn't, at least not much. The hold probability sits at roughly the same level it was before the data landed.

The reason is a separate story that's been unfolding since the middle of July: renewed conflict involving Iran has pushed oil prices and market interest rate expectations higher. Two-year and five-year SONIA swap rates have both climbed noticeably over the past month. That's the market pricing in a bit more Bank of England tightening down the line, and it's happened at almost exactly the same time as the dovish CPI surprise.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will the Bank of England raise rates on 30 July 2026?

A hold at 3.75% is the overwhelming favourite, priced at around 86-87% by markets as of late July 2026. A rise to 4.00% is priced at roughly 14%. The decision comes with a full Monetary Policy Report, which makes it a genuinely live meeting rather than a formality.

What did June's cooler CPI figure mean for the July 30 decision?

June CPI came in at 2.6%, down from 2.8% in May and below the roughly 2.7% consensus forecast. On its own, that would usually lower the odds of a hike. But a separate development, a sharp rise in SWAP and gilt yields linked to renewed conflict involving Iran, pushed market rate expectations back up over the same period. The two effects have roughly cancelled out, leaving the hold probability little changed from before the CPI print.

Are buy-to-let mortgage rates still falling in July 2026?

No. After roughly seven months of cuts, several lenders including BM Solutions, Halifax, Nationwide, Barclays, HSBC UK and Coventry Building Society raised buy-to-let and residential rates from around mid-July 2026. This was driven by SWAP rates rising, not by a Bank of England move. Landlords should not assume the earlier cutting trend is still in progress.

Does the ICR stress test change if the Bank of England holds or raises rates?

No. The PRA's minimum stress rate for buy-to-let lending is a 5.5% floor under Supervisory Statement SS13/16, and it applies regardless of where Bank Rate sits. Basic rate taxpayers and limited company borrowers typically need rental income covering 125% of interest at the stress rate; higher rate personal landlords need 145%.