The July 30 MPC Decision: What Landlords Need to Know

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meets on 30 July. A hold at 3.75% is the strong favourite, priced at around 86 to 87%. But if you're a landlord, the base rate decision itself isn't really the story this week.

Buy-to-let mortgage rates, which had been falling for months, have quietly started rising again. That's the real story this week. It happened before the MPC even meets, and it has nothing to do with what the Bank decides on Thursday.

Here's what's actually going on, and what it means if you're remortgaging in the second half of 2026.

The Hold Is Still the Base Case

June's inflation data gave the doves something to work with. CPI came in at 2.6% for the year to June, down from 2.8% in May and below the roughly 2.7% that economists had pencilled in. It's the lowest reading since March 2025, and the drop was driven mainly by falling motor fuel prices.

On its own, a cooler-than-expected CPI print like that would normally nudge the odds away from a hike. It hasn't, at least not much. The hold probability sits at roughly the same level it was before the data landed.

The reason is a separate story that's been unfolding since the middle of July: renewed conflict involving Iran has pushed oil prices and market interest rate expectations higher. Two-year and five-year SONIA swap rates have both climbed noticeably over the past month. That's the market pricing in a bit more Bank of England tightening down the line, and it's happened at almost exactly the same time as the dovish CPI surprise.

Put the two together and you get a hold probability that's barely moved. The cooling inflation data and the geopolitically-driven rise in rate expectations have roughly cancelled each other out.

What to Watch in the Vote

The decision itself matters less than the split behind it. At the June meeting, the Committee held at 3.75% by a vote of 7-2. Chief Economist Huw Pill and external member Megan Greene both voted for a rise to 4.00%, up from Pill voting alone in April.

Their argument hasn't changed: if higher energy and import costs get embedded in wage and price-setting, waiting too long to act becomes more costly than acting early. Pill repeated as much in a BBC Wales interview in early July, saying rates would need to rise given an economy "running a little bit hotter than the supply side" can support.

Most forecasters expect Pill and Greene to dissent again on 30 July, but not to be joined by enough colleagues to shift the outcome. Services inflation, still running at 3.6% despite easing slightly from 3.7% in May, remains the figure the more hawkish members keep pointing to. A Reuters poll of 65 economists found the clear majority expect a hold for the rest of 2026, though around 40% still think at least one hike is likely before the year is out. Only a handful expect a cut.

This meeting also comes with a full Monetary Policy Report, so it's a genuine opportunity for the Committee to shift its guidance even if the vote itself doesn't change. Worth watching, even if the headline decision is what most people expect.

The Real Story: BTL Rates Have Already Turned

Here's the part that affects your mortgage more directly than the MPC vote will.

Since around mid-July, the run of buy-to-let rate cuts that had been going for the best part of two months has reversed. Several major lenders, including BM Solutions, Halifax, Nationwide, Barclays, HSBC UK and Coventry Building Society, have put rates up rather than down. Halifax and Nationwide moved by as much as 0.2 to 0.25 percentage points on some products.

This isn't a Bank Rate story. Fixed-rate buy-to-let mortgages are priced off SWAP rates, and those are the rates that jumped on the back of the Iran-related risk premium described above. Lenders are simply passing through a higher cost of funding.

The most recent published Moneyfacts average for buy-to-let fixed rates is 5.42%, as of 1 July. That figure predates the reversal and hasn't moved in the weeks since, because Moneyfacts only refreshes its headline average roughly once a month. The next update, expected around 1 August, will be the first to show whether the July rises have fed through into the market-wide average.

If you've been reading recent coverage suggesting BTL rates are still on their way down, treat it with caution. The direction of travel changed in the second half of July, and any article written before that point is now out of date on this specific question.

What This Means If You're Remortgaging

Around 1.8 million fixed-rate mortgage deals are due to expire across the market in 2026, with an estimated £49 billion of that in buy-to-let lending. If you fixed in 2021 or early 2022, you're likely rolling off a rate somewhere between 2% and 3%.

The gap between that and today's market average is still substantial even after the summer's cuts, and it's not going to close on its own. A hold at 30 July keeps the base rate steady, which is helpful in the sense that it removes one source of near-term uncertainty. But it doesn't reverse the SWAP-driven rise in fixed mortgage pricing that's already happened.

Practically, that means:

• Don't wait for a base rate cut to plan your remortgage. The Bank isn't signalling one is imminent, and even if it did cut, fixed BTL pricing tracks SWAP rates, not Bank Rate directly.
• Model your numbers at today's market rate, not your existing deal's rate. Run your cashflow at 5%, 5.5% and whatever the current average is when you check.
• Lock in early if your deal expires within six months. Most lenders let you secure a rate months ahead of your renewal date, and many will let you switch to a lower rate if one becomes available before completion. That gives you downside protection without losing the chance of a better deal.
• Check your numbers against the ICR stress test. The PRA's stress rate floor of 5.5% under Supervisory Statement SS13/16 hasn't changed and won't change because of anything the MPC decides this week. Basic rate and limited company borrowers typically need rental income covering 125% of mortgage interest at the stress rate; higher rate personal landlords need 145%.

The Bigger Picture

None of this happens in isolation. The energy price cap rose 13% at the start of July, adding to landlord cost pressure independent of financing. Section 24 continues to tax finance costs on a phantom-income basis for personal landlords. And the political backdrop has shifted too, with Andy Burnham now Prime Minister and a new Housing Secretary in post, though rent controls, a rumour that gained traction in July, have been explicitly ruled out for now.

For landlords, the practical takeaway from 30 July is straightforward: expect a hold, watch the vote split for a read on where things go next, but don't let the base rate decision distract you from the fact that your actual borrowing costs moved before the Bank even met.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Tax rules and legislation change frequently. Always verify current rates with HMRC or GOV.UK and seek independent professional advice before making investment decisions.