The September 17 MPC Decision: What Landlords Need to Know

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee announces its decision at midday today, 17 September. This article was written first thing this morning, before that announcement, so it previews what's expected rather than reports what happened.

Every economist in a Reuters poll of 65, taken between 4 and 8 September, expected a hold at 3.75%. That's about as close to unanimous as these polls get. But the more interesting story for landlords isn't today's vote. It's the gap between what economists expect this week and what financial markets are pricing for next year, and the fact that your mortgage rate is already responding to the second one, not the first.

Today's Meeting Is Smaller Than It Sounds

Thursday's decision is an interim meeting. That means the Committee publishes a summary and the minutes, but there's no full Monetary Policy Report and no press conference. The next meeting with a full MPR, where the Bank sets out its inflation and growth forecasts in detail, isn't until 5 November.

That matters for how much weight to put on today. A hold at an interim meeting with no MPR attached is a lower-drama outcome than a hold at a full quarterly decision. If the Committee wanted to shift its message significantly, November is the more natural moment to do it.

Why a Hold Is the Overwhelming Expectation

The Reuters poll found 57 of the 65 economists surveyed expect Bank Rate to stay at 3.75% for the rest of 2026, with the other eight expecting a hike to 4.00% by year end. None forecast a cut. Most analysts, including those at ING, expect the vote itself to split 6-3, the same pattern as July, with Chief Economist Huw Pill and external members Megan Greene and Catherine Mann voting to raise to 4.00%. That would extend a run of increasingly hawkish votes: 8-1 in April, 7-2 in June, 6-3 in July.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will the Bank of England raise interest rates on 17 September 2026?

No economist in a Reuters poll of 65, taken 4-8 September 2026, expected anything other than a hold at 3.75%. Most expect the vote to split 6-3, the same pattern as July, with Chief Economist Huw Pill and external members Megan Greene and Catherine Mann voting for a rise to 4.00%. This article was written before the decision was announced and does not report the outcome.

Why are buy-to-let mortgage rates rising if the Bank of England keeps holding?

Fixed-rate buy-to-let deals are priced off swap rates and gilt yields, not Bank Rate directly. Those have risen sharply since early September on the back of a global bond sell-off, and lenders have been passing that cost through regardless of what the Bank Rate itself does. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told the Treasury select committee on 8 September that UK mortgage rates were then around 0.75 percentage points higher than before the conflict, the largest rise anywhere in the G7.

What did August's inflation figure show ahead of the September decision?

CPI rose to 3.1% in the 12 months to August 2026, up from 2.9% in July, driven mainly by motor fuel costs. It is the first reading above 3% in some time, but because 17 September is an interim meeting with no full Monetary Policy Report, most economists still expected it to reinforce a hold rather than trigger a rise at this particular meeting.

Does the ICR stress test change depending on what the Bank of England decides?

No. The PRA's minimum stress rate for buy-to-let lending sits at a 5.5% floor under Supervisory Statement SS13/16, regardless of where Bank Rate or swap rates move. Basic rate taxpayers and limited company borrowers typically need rental income covering 125% of interest at the stress rate; higher rate personal landlords need 145%.